Friday, March 13, 2015

I was wrong

Its been obvious for a while: my call on market peak on 12/16/14 was wrong. Since then, all major indexes have made new highs.

I was early but tide may be turning. This week saw a modest sell-off but nothing resembling panic selling. That will surely follow as it becomes obvious that US economy is not immune to global slowdown. Signs are becoming more evident:

ECRI weakly growth is stuck at -4%

Inventories to sales ratio is at recessionary levels: 


The producer price index is at level that has only been seen in recessions: 


Finally, insiders are bailing out (source: Nautilus Research):

So although I was wrong in December, I still believe that a larger correction is coming and it may just be a few weeks away. 

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