ECRI weakly leading index indicates slowdown

U.S. weekly leading index from ECRI has shown weakness in the recent weeks as shown below (the shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions):

The index has turned negative after a being positive for 2013 and most of 2014. The indicated slowdown is not yet significant but it is in contrast to consensus optimism for 2015 and the record high stock market.

A longer view of this index is shown below. ECRI has quite good track record in indicating recessions but has also given a few false warnings. Nevertheless, this is an indicator to keep on eye on.