Monday, January 5, 2015

Households are all into stocks

Households are usually not the best market timers; they tend to get nervous and sell near market bottom and buy near the high. Keeping this in mind, the following chart is sobering:

Household flow of funds to stocks and bonds
In 2008-2009, the households pulled out record amount of money from stocks and bought bonds and treasuries. In retrospect, this was a good time to buy stocks. 

Since 2013, household have moved money from bonds and treasuries into stocks at record pace. I predict that this would be a good time to do the opposite and pull out from stocks.

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