Tuesday, February 3, 2015

Realities do not matter

It is clear that the market will go higher in absence of negative news. The following news could have been perceived as negative but they did not affect the market:

  1. War in Europe (Ukraine) and Russia annexing its neighboring territory unilaterally. 
  2. Recession in Japan. 
  3. Slowing growth in China. 
  4. Eurozone deflation. 
  5. The most negative earnings guidance for SP500. 
  6. Plummeting commodity prices signaling global slowdown. 
  7. Almost total collapse of the world’s 9th largest economy (Russia). 
  8. Utter collapse of Baltic Dry Index again indicating global slowdown. 
It is obvious that stock market has decoupled from realities. Equally obvious is that it is hard to predict when the reality will catch up with the market. The rising volatility, however, indicates that the market is on borrowed time.

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