Friday, March 20, 2015

Economy looks real bad for Q1 2015

Economic data has been weak in recent months. Figure below shows how coincident economic indicators are overwhelmingly deteriorating:

There is a lot of data in this figure - taking the average shows a clearer picture:

The acceleration has been fast. The effect is also seen in the FED forecast for Q1 GDP:


Market is sheering all these negative developments. There is not even a pretense that price movements are driven or related to fundamentals other than short term interest rate. But bulls have only price momentum only on their side, the price may quickly snap down.


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